Emerging risks
Introduction

The successful identification of emerging risks is at the heart of protecting public health and the environment. By identifying emerging risks in the food chain early, EFSA supports risk managers in anticipating risks and taking effective and timely prevention measures to protect consumers. Identifying emerging risks also helps to improve EFSA’s ability to meet future risk assessment challenges.
EFSA defines an emerging risk as: “A risk resulting from a newly identified hazard to which a significant exposure may occur, or from an unexpected new or increased significant exposure and/or susceptibility to a known hazard.”
Networks
Emerging risk identification is a complex process requiring broad expertise and close cooperation with Member States, stakeholders, and EU and international agencies. Dedicated networks provide the structures needed to exchange experience, methods and data and to assess emerging issues.
Activity reports
Each year EFSA publishes a report detailing its strategy and activities on emerging risks in food and feed.
Methodologies
In recent years, EFSA has taken a number of practical steps to assist with the identification of emerging risks, including:
- Developing a methodological framework.
- Implementing operational processes for emerging risk identification.
- Identifying and assessing selected sources of information.
- Developing and testing tools to collect and filter relevant information.
2020
- Scientific report (CLEFSA Project): Climate change as a driver of emerging risks for food and feed safety, plant, animal health and nutritional quality
- Final report: Determination and Metrics for Emerging Risks Identification DEMETER
2019
- Applicability of a food chain analysis on aquaculture of Atlantic salmon to identify and monitor vulnerabilities and drivers of change for the identification of emerging risks
- Final Report: Applying a tested procedure for the identification of potential emerging chemical risks in the food chain to the substances registered under REACH ‐ REACH 2
2018
- Emerging risks identification on food and feed – EFSA
- Project DEMETER: Concept Note for an Emerging Risks Knowledge Exchange Platform (ERKEP) Framework
2017:
2016:
- Testing a text mining tool for emerging risk identification
- Development and testing of the media monitoring tool MedISys for plant health threats
- Testing a procedure for the identification of emerging chemical risks in the food chain
2015:
- Review and analysis of occurrence, exposure and toxicity of cyanobacteria toxins in food
- Identification of emerging risks: an appraisal of the procedure trialled by EFSA and the way forward
2014:
- A systematic procedure for the identification of emerging chemical risks in the food and feed chain
- Drivers of emerging risks and their interactions in the domain of biological risks
2012:
- Modelling, predicting and mapping the emergence of aflatoxins in cereals in the EU due to climate change
- Piloting a process for Emerging Risks Identification: Lessons learnt and next steps
- A Framework for Emerging Risks Identification
- Evaluation of a system for the scanning of Eurostat’s data to detect trends in trade
- Development and implementation of a system for the early identification of emerging risks in food and feed
2011:
- 15th Scientific Colloquium: EFSA shares progress on its work on emerging risks
- Data collection for the identification of emerging risks related to food and feed.
- Customization of MedISys for the monitoring of food and feed hazards
- EFSA Scientific Colloquium N°16: Emerging Risks in Plant Health: from plant pest interactions to global change
2010:
- Establishment and maintenance of routine analysis of data from the Rapid Alert System on Food and Feed
- Collection and routine analysis of import surveillance data with a view to identification of emerging risks
2009:
- Report of the EFSA Scientific Cooperation (ESCO) - Working Group on Emerging Risks
- Development of web monitoring systems for the detection of emerging risks
2007:
2006:
2005:
