Emerging risks and horizon scanning

An emerging risk A risk to human, animal or plant health resulting from a new source or increased susceptibility or exposure to an existing source is a risk resulting from a newly identified hazard A substance or activity which has the potential to cause adverse effects to living organisms or environments to which a significant exposure Concentration or amount of a particular substance that is taken in by an individual, population or ecosystem in a specific frequency over a certain amount of time may occur, or from an unexpected new or increased significant exposure and/or susceptibility to a known hazard.

The successful and early identification of emerging risks is critical in the food safety area for improving operational readiness.

• It supports policymakers in anticipating risks and taking effective and timely prevention and control measures to protect consumers, animals, plants and the environment.
• It also helps to improve the ability of scientific risk assessors such as EFSA to meet future challenges, for example, by mining new sources of data, developing new analytical tools and methods, and broadening networks of scientific knowledge.

Drivers of emerging risks may include globalisation, international trading, urbanization, population Community of humans, animals or plants from the same species growth, climate change, scientific discovery, resource scarcity, environmental and agricultural challenges, supply chain concentration, price volatility, changing diets, and antimicrobial resistance The ability of microorganisms (such as bacteria, viruses, fungi) to survive exposure to antimicrobials. This phenomenon, driven largely by the overuse and misuse of antimicrobial agents (e.g. antibiotics, fungicides used as plant protection agents, etc), makes infections harder to treat and poses a significant threat to public health..

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EFSA's role

Under Articles 23 and 34 of the EFSA Food Law Regulation 178/2002, EFSA is required to:

• Detect, identify and analyse possible under-reported or upcoming challenges linked to food/feed safety, animal health, plant health, and environmental aspects under the One Health integrated, unifying approach that aims to sustainably balance and optimise the health of people, animals and ecosystems approach.
• Identify, assess and disseminate information on emerging issues or weak signals, and ensure coordination with relevant networks and international organisations.
• Enhance the identification of data sources and data collection and/or data generation in prioritised emerging issues or weak signals
• Evaluate the collected information and identify emerging risks and weak signals
• Strengthen cooperation on foresight and horizon-scanning with actors within the food safety knowledge ecosystem A community of living organisms in conjunction with non-living components (e.g. air, water and mineral soil). A healthy ecosystem is a finely balanced system where animals, plants and microbes live in harmony with their environment, within the EU and beyond to ensure EFSA’s work remains fit for purpose.

EFSA’s emerging risks analysis and horizon scanning activities are led by the Knowledge, Innovation and Partnership Management Unit and by the Chief Scientist’s Office.

Since 2002, EFSA has taken several practical steps in detecting emerging risks, including:

• Develop a methodological framework to define how emerging risks are identified, evaluated, and communicated.
• Implement operational processes that support continuous monitoring and structured assessment of new signals.
• Identify and assess key information sources to ensure timely access to relevant data.
• Develop and test tools to collect and filter relevant data
• Team up with other stakeholders involved in emerging risks and horizon scanning.

Each year EFSA publishes a report detailing its strategy and activities on emerging risks in food and feed.

Latest

The most recent EFSA Annual Report on emerging risks and horizon scanning activities came out in May 2025 and covered the year 2024. EFSA collected a total of 65 emerging issues, of which 38 were further characterised and seven identified as emerging risks. Most of risks requiring follow-up were in the areas of contaminants and biological hazards.

• 2024 EFSA Annual Report Emerging Risks and Horizon Scanning Activities

Key concepts

These key concepts are fundamental to emerging risks analysis and horizon scanning:

Emerging risks are risks resulting from a newly identified hazard to which significant exposure may occur or from an unexpected new or increased significant exposure and/or susceptibility to a known hazard.

Environmental scanning concerns current developments related to Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, Legal and Ethical (STEEPLE) factors and in our immediate environment that are outside our control, but which may impact EFSA’s capacity to fulfil its mission.

Horizon scanning seeks to identify early weak signals that may evolve into emerging issues in the future but are not yet to be found in current research or media. Those emerging issues can then become trends over time, possibly with transformative consequences, or disappear.

Foresight understands the future as an emerging entity that is only partially visible in the present, not a predetermined destiny that can be fully known in advance (predicted). The objective is not to ‘get the future right’, but to expand and reframe the range of plausible developments that need to be taken into consideration to prepare for future challenges, build resilience and take action now that proactively shapes the future.

Networks

Emerging risk identification is a complex process requiring broad expertise and close cooperation with Member States, stakeholders, and EU and international agencies. EFSA’s preparedness relies on our global collaboration with key knowledge networks and partners:

• Emerging Risks Exchange Network
• Stakeholder Discussion Group on Emerging Risks
• EU Agencies Network
• third countries
• international organisations.

These dedicated networks and partnerships provide the structures needed to exchange experience, methods and data and to assess emerging issues.