probability

In food safety, probability refers to the likelihood that a harmful event will occur, such as the presence of a hazard in food, human exposure to it, or the occurrence of an adverse health effect.

EFSA uses probability throughout its risk assessments to estimate and compare food safety risks. For example, EFSA assesses the probability that a pathogen contaminates a food product, the probability that consumers are exposed through their diet, or the probability that a given exposure level leads to illness. This is done using data from monitoring programmes, scientific studies, and food consumption surveys. EFSA often applies probabilistic models to account for variability and uncertainty, rather than relying on single “worst-case” values. By combining probability with information on the severity of effects, EFSA provides risk managers with a clear picture of how likely and how serious a risk is, supporting proportionate and evidence-based EU food safety decisions.