Scientific Opinion on the risk of Phyllosticta citricarpa (Guignardia citricarpa) for the EU territory with identification and evaluation of risk reduction options
The Panel conducted a risk assessment of Phyllosticta citricarpa for the EU. P. citricarpa causes citrus black spot (CBS) and is absent from the EU. Under the scenario of absence of specific risk reduction options against P. citricarpa, the risk of entry of P. citricarpa was rated as likely for citrus plants for planting and citrus fruit with leaves, moderately likely for citrus fruit without leaves, unlikely for citrus leaves for cooking and very unlikely for Tahiti lime fruit without leaves. Establishment was rated as moderately likely because susceptible hosts are widely available and environmental conditions in many EU citrus-growing areas are suitable (with high uncertainty) for P. citricarpa ascospore production, dispersal and infection. Current fungicide treatments will not prevent establishment. Environmental favourability is increased by the use of sprinkler and micro-sprinkler irrigation in some EU citrus-growing locations. Spread with trade was rated as moderately likely. Model results indicate that CBS epidemics are most likely to develop in EU citrus-growing areas in late summer to early autumn and in some locations also in late spring to early summer. CBS is expected to affect mainly lemons and late-maturing sweet orange and mandarin varieties, with moderate negative consequences for the production of fresh fruit, but with environmental impact of additional fungicide treatments. Negative consequences would be minor for early-maturing citrus varieties and minimal for citrus for processing. Uncertainty concerning the consequences is high, mainly because of the lack of data on critical climate response parameters for the pathogen but also because information on impact in areas at the limits of the current distribution is scarce. Since eradication and containment are difficult, phytosanitary measures should focus on preventing entry. Current phytosanitary measures are evaluated to be effective, with the exception of pest-free production sites.