Modelling the spread of Swine Vesicular Disease Virus and Vesicular Stomatitis Virus in an area of livestock units without any control measures and measurement of consequential impact resulting from an assumed introduction into one livestock farm
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The present document has been produced and adopted by the bodies identified above as authors. In accordance with Article 36 of Regulation (EC) No 178/2002, this task has been carried out exclusively by the authors in the context of a grant agreement between the European Food Safety Authority and the authors. The present document is published complying with the transparency principle to which the European Food Safety Authority is subject. It may not be considered as an output adopted by EFSA. EFSA reserves its rights, view and position as regards the issues addressed and the conclusions reached in the present document, without prejudice to the rights of the authors.
Abstract
A structured computer model was used to simulate the spread of infectious livestock diseases without consideration of disease management or control measures. The modelling concept was determined from literature on epidemiological modelling of livestock diseases and the subject matter input by the EFSA WG on Swine Vesicular Disease and Vesicular Stomatitis. The model was applied to simulate outbreaks of three different diseases (i.e. CSF as control, SVD and VS) after a single introduction and subsequent spatio-temporal spread. The model output included the duration of epidemics, the number of affected livestock farms and the number of seropositive animals within affected farms. Simulation output was provided and resulting understanding indicated. The model was laid down in full by a flow chart and an exhaustive description provided following the ODD protocol for standardised documentation of complex models.