Risk assessment of African swine fever in the south‐eastern countries of Europe

African Swine Fever, risk, spread, south‐eastern Europe
First published in the EFSA Journal
5 novembre 2019
Adopted
27 settembre 2019
Type
Scientific Opinion

Abstract

The European Commission requested EFSA to estimate the risk of spread of African swine fever (ASF) and to identify potential risk factors (indicators) for the spread of ASF, given introduction in the south‐eastern countries of Europe (region of concern, ROC), namely Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Greece, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Slovenia. Three EU Member States (MS) – Croatia, Greece and Slovenia – were included in the ROC due to their geographical location and ASF‐free status. Based on collected information on potential risk factors (indicators) for each country and the relevant EU regulations in force, the estimated probability of spread of ASF within the ROC within one year after introduction into the ROC was assessed to be very high (from 66% to 100%). This estimate was determined after considering the high number of indicators present in most of the countries in the ROC and the known effect that these indicators can have on ASF spread, especially those related to the structure of the domestic pig sector, the presence of wild boar and social factors. The presence of indicators varies between countries in the ROC. Each country is at risk of ASF spread following introduction; however, some countries may have a higher probability of ASF spread following introduction. In addition, the probability of ASF spread from the ROC to EU MSs outside the ROC within one year after introduction of ASF in the ROC was estimated to be very low to low (from 0% to 15%). This estimate was based on the comparison of the indicators present in the ROC and the already affected countries in south‐eastern Europe, such as Bulgaria and Romania, where there was no evidence of ASF spread to other EU MS within one year.

Panel members at the time of adoption

Søren Saxmose Nielsen, Julio Alvarez, Dominique Bicout, Paolo Calistri, Klaus Depner, Julian Ashley Drewe, Bruno Garin‐Bastuji, Jose Luis Gonzales Rojas, Christian Gortázar Schmidt, Virginie Michel, Miguel Angel Miranda, Helen Roberts, Liisa Sihvonen, Hans Spoolder, Karl Ståhl, Arvo Viltrop and Christoph Winckler.
Panel on Animal Health and Welfare
Contact
ahaw [at] efsa.europa.eu
doi
10.2903/j.efsa.2019.5861
EFSA Journal 2019;17(11):5861
Question Number
On request from
European Commission