ASF modelling procurement 2018

15 February 2018 - 23:59 (CET)

Ref: NP/EFSA/ALPHA/2018/01

Background: African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating infectious disease of domestic pigs and wild boar. From the beginning of 2014 up to now, Genotype II of ASF has been notified in Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Romania causing very serious concerns.

EFSA has been requested by the European Commission to provide scientific and technical assistance on ASF (MandateM-2017-0217[1]). The latest scientific report of EFSA on ASF was published in November 2017[2] and it reviewed the epidemiological data on ASF from the Baltic States and Poland in order to update the analysis carried out in the EFSA opinion on ASF of 2015. The EFSA opinion and this technical report are supporting the Commission for reviewing the EU ASF strategy. The Commission is in need of an updated epidemiological analysis by EFSA of the latest ASF data related to both domestic pigs and wild boar.

Modelling the spread of the disease in Europe and an assessment of the effectiveness of the implemented measures by the MSs should be included in the next EFSA scientific report to reply to the Terms of Reference (TOR) of the mandate, in particular TORs 3-5:

TOR3: Review the control measures applied by the affected Member States for controlling the spread of the disease in wild boar and for eradicating it. Assess their effectiveness and review scientific literature addressing these measures.

TOR4: Review and assess the robustness and effectiveness of the different types of geographical artificial or natural boundaries used for the determination/demarcation of the restricted areas.

TOR5: Based on the latest science and epidemiological data, review the measures for managing the wild boar populations in four separate geographical areas:

  • Disease free areas, far away from any ASF occurrence, which should take long term actions for preparing for a future possible incursion of the disease considering the human factor;
  • Disease free areas neighbouring infected or restricted areas at higher risk of getting the infection mainly via natural spread of the disease through wild boar;
  • Areas where the disease was recently introduced in wild boar;
  • Areas where the disease has been present in the wild boar population for quite some time (more than one year).

In this context, EFSA is launching this procurement to obtain technical assistance in developing and validating an ASF spread model to assess the effectiveness of wild boar management options in preventing spread of ASF and/or its eradication.

Contact e-mail: efsaprocurement [at]

Selection criteria - technical and professional capacity:

The tenderer must have the following minimum professional capacity to perform the contract (these are examples, please tailor them to your needs, do not request unnecessary evidence):

  1. The tenderer must have extensive and demonstrable experience in ASF modelling, field epidemiology, wild boar population ecology and control measures.
  2. Ability to provide a team of experts compliant with these specific expertise requirements:
    • 1 expert in modelling infectious diseases of at least 7 years (to develop, validate and run the model)
    • 1 expert in wild boar population ecology of at least 5 years (to provide advice and to review the model and its outputs)
    • 1 expert in ASF outbreak investigations and control measures of at least 2 years (to provide advice and to review the model and its outputs)
  3. Each expert individually must have an excellent level of spoken and written standard UK English. For non-native speakers, this should be demonstrated by an Official certificate of English proving a B2 level OR at least 3 years of work in an English-speaking environment etc.

The tenderer must have the following minimum technical capacity to perform the contract:

  1. The tenderer must have access to statistical software used in EFSA (i.e. SAS, R or another open source software).

[1] The full mandate is available at


1 February 2018