Spatial spread and maintenance of foot-and-mouth disease virus infections in wildlife populations of Thrace region applying epidemiological modelling
Meta data
The present document has been produced and adopted by the bodies identified above as authors. In accordance with Article 36 of Regulation (EC) No 178/2002, this task has been carried out exclusively by the authors in the context of a grant agreement between the European Food Safety Authority and the authors. The present document is published complying with the transparency principle to which the European Food Safety Authority is subject. It may not be considered as an output adopted by EFSA. EFSA reserves its rights, view and position as regards the issues addressed and the conclusions reached in the present document, without prejudice to the rights of the authors.
Abstract
Management responses required for mitigation are frequently limited by poor understanding of wildlife disease epidemiology. Epidemiological modelling is one approach for providing an integrative understanding of different aspects of wildlife disease epidemiology. Therefore, EFSA (AHAW) requested a model-based assessment of the spread and maintenance of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in wildlife populations inhabiting eco-regions comparable to the segment of the Bulgarian-Turkish border in Thrace region. A structured computer model was developed combining rule-based representation of ecological details on host species and epidemiological evidence on foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) from literature and expert opinion. The model was fully documented following the ODD-protocol (Overview – Design concepts – Details) dedicated to capture description of process models. Parameterisation with respective literature references was included. The outcome of the simulation model indicated that the strong temperature dependence of FMDV survival in the environment and the particular seasonal pattern of host reproduction in Thrace result in seasonally increased chance of virus fade-out from the wild life population. Model simulations indicated that FMD will not be sustainable in the wildlife population in Thrace for a long time but spread of FMDV may occur. Duration and spatial extent of the simulated spread was dependent on the size of the area suitable for wildlife and the host abundance pattern applied as in Thrace region. The model outcome was more sensitive to assumptions on local host population density and uptake rate of the infection from infectious environment rather than to the particular value of animal-to-animal transmission within social groupings of hosts.